Is there a way that I can calculate estimated end dates for spreading disease using python?
I’m currently working on a project which takes online covid-19 case data and tries to fit an Infected curve from the infectious disease model of SIR. So far here are the results for some countries.
What I’d like to add is, estimation of a date of which the infection speed is significantly low. For example I’d like to be able to say, the date July 30th is the critical date for Turkey, as most of the cases happened already by that date. What would be the right approach according to the statistics and how can I implement those calculations via Python?
Source code and reproducible version of the project can be found at melda.io . Thanks in advance for your time and suggestions.
